Date of Completion
2024
Document Type
Honors College Thesis
Department
Biology
Thesis Type
Honors College, College of Arts and Science Honors
First Advisor
Nicholas Gotelli
Second Advisor
Ellen Martinsen
Keywords
Tick-borne zoonoses, Borrelia burgdorferi, Babesia microti, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Climate change projections, Epidemiological modeling
Abstract
Tick-borne zoonoses represent a significant and escalating public health threat, particularly in the United States, where ixodid (family Ixodidae) ticks serve as vectors for an array of tick-borne pathogens. With the release of climate change projections, understanding the complex interplay between environmental variables and disease dynamics becomes paramount. This study integrates epidemiological, molecular, and climatological data to investigate the influence of temperature and precipitation on the prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi, Babesia microti, and Anaplasma phagocytophilum within adult Ixodes scapularis populations. Leveraging multiple linear regression models and climate projections, my analysis reveals associations between climatic factors and pathogen prevalence rates. While temperature emerges as a key determinant, precipitation exhibits a comparatively lower influence. By extrapolating current trends into future climate scenarios, our projections suggest a notable escalation in disease incidence by 2070. Despite inherent limitations in our model, including data constraints and potential overestimation of pathogen prevalence, our findings underscore the urgent need for continued research and proactive public health measures to mitigate the threat of tick-borne zoonoses amidst a changing climate. This comprehensive approach provides valuable insights into the dynamic nature of environmental factors, vector ecology, and disease transmission dynamics, informing targeted strategies for disease prevention and protection of the public health.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License.
Recommended Citation
Webb, Joseph D., "Evaluating the Impact of Climatic Factors on Tick-Borne Pathogen Prevalence: Insights from Ixodes scapularis and its Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti Pathogens" (2024). UVM Patrick Leahy Honors College Senior Theses. 673.
https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/hcoltheses/673