Date of Completion

2025

Document Type

Honors College Thesis

Thesis Type

Honors College

First Advisor

Jean-Gabriel Young

Second Advisor

Laurent Hébert-Dufresne

Keywords

Network Epidemiology, Infectious Disease, Superspreader, Operation Outbreak, Negative Binomial Model, Transmission Tree

Abstract

Operation Outbreak is a mobile app-based simulation tool that uses Bluetooth to transmit a virtual virus between individuals in close proximity. This offers access to simulated disease transmission data within a controlled environment, enabling analyses that would be unfeasible with data from real-world outbreaks. In this research, we assess the validity of Operation Outbreak as a tool for obtaining realistic transmission trees by making comparisons between Operation Outbreak simulated infection trees and transmission dynamics that have been observed in real-world infection trees. Our findings indicate that the analysis of Operation Outbreak simulations produces results consistent with real-world transmission dynamics, including superspreaders infecting other superspreaders more than expected, a decrease in R0 over time during an outbreak, and a decrease in the proportion of cases causing superspreading events. We then briefly explore some of the unique opportunities for analysis enabled by Operation Outbreak simulations, which would be difficult to accurately replicate using real-world data. These include mixing pattern analysis based on individual protection levels, observing changes in serial intervals, and determining conditional probabilities of infection by looking at the entire simulated population. Our research enables the use of Operation Outbreak simulations as a tool to better our understanding of disease transmission dynamics and inform responses to real-world outbreaks.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License.

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