Temporal and probabilistic forecasts of epidemic interventions
Boudreau, Mariah
Boudreau, Mariah
Citations
Altmetric:
License
License
Abstract
In this work, time-dependent probability generating functions (PGFs) model a stochastic branching process of disease spread over a network of contacts where public health interventions are introduced over time. We define a general transmissibility equation to account for varying contact patterns and percentage of the population immunized. The resulting framework showcases a temporal and probabilistic analysis of an intervention's impact on disease spread, which match continuous-time stochastic simulations. To aid decision makers, we define several metrics over which these forecasts can be compared. Our work provides a more detailed short-term forecast of disease spread and comparison of intervention strategies.
Description
Date
2023-01-01
Student Status
Graduate
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Type of presentation
Poster Presentation
Collections
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Citation
DOI
Advisor(s)
Department
Program/Major
Mathematics
College/School
College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences
Organization
item.page.researchcategory
Engineering and Math Science