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Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity: Challenges and opportunities
Dornelas, Maria Magurran, Anne E. Buckland, Stephen T. Chao, Anne Chazdon, Robin L. Colwell, Robert K. Curtis, Tom Gaston, Kevin J. Gotelli, Nicholas J. Kosnik, Matthew A.
Dornelas, Maria
Magurran, Anne E.
Buckland, Stephen T.
Chao, Anne
Chazdon, Robin L.
Colwell, Robert K.
Curtis, Tom
Gaston, Kevin J.
Gotelli, Nicholas J.
Kosnik, Matthew A.
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© 2012 The Authors.
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10.1098/rspb.2012.1931
Abstract
Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series-lack of physical boundaries, unidimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality-that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions. © 2012 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
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2013-01-01
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Dornelas M, Magurran AE, Buckland ST, Chao A, Chazdon RL, Colwell RK, Curtis T, Gaston KJ, Gotelli NJ, Kosnik MA, McGill B. Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity: challenges and opportunities. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2013 Jan 7;280(1750):20121931.