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Decoding Rural Travel: Transportation Energy Costs, Built Environment, And Policy Insights From Vermont
Ahmadnia, Narges
Ahmadnia, Narges
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The transportation sector is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Vermont, with light-duty vehicles accounting for more than half of these emissions. Policies aimed at reducing transportation-related GHGs typically target transportation energy costs (e.g., carbon taxes, which increase fuel prices and reduce driving) or the built environment (e.g., promoting compact development to shorten travel distances). Despite these efforts, Vermont is not currently on track to meet its GHG reduction goals. Understanding how people respond to these policies is essential to evaluating their effectiveness. Rural areas have distinct travel patterns, accessibility constraints, and mobility needs, yet little is known about travel behavior in rural communities. This dissertation addresses this gap by examining how transportation energy costs and built environment characteristics—two key levers for reducing transportation emissions—can contribute to GHG mitigation in rural areas.
Reducing GHG emissions through market-based policies, such as carbon taxes, raises concerns about disproportionately affecting rural households’ welfare, which are often more car-dependent, have fewer transportation alternatives, and have lower incomes. Using survey data collected in 2022 during a period of rising gasoline prices, the first study finds that, contrary to prior research, rural households are responsive to fuel price changes, adjusting their travel behavior accordingly. Building on this, the second study uses detailed vehicle-level data from Vermont to quantify how fluctuations in gasoline prices and vehicle fuel efficiency influence travel. The results align with the survey findings and further reveal that the benefits of vehicle efficiency improvements in rural areas are overestimated, as efficiency gains can induce additional driving. Together, these findings suggest that market-based policies could be effective in rural areas and, when combined with efficiency improvements, could serve as a strategy to achieve reductions in GHG emissions.
Promoting compact and mixed-use development is another strategy to reduce trip distances and, in turn, GHG emissions. However, an important yet underexplored question is whether such development aligns with residents’ preferences in rural contexts. To investigate this, the third study uses survey data to examine residents’ residential preferences, neighborhood choices, and the transportation-related barriers that prevent them from living in their preferred locations. The findings suggest there may be an unmet demand for more compact and mixed-use development in rural areas, with transportation and accessibility being the primary factors driving this preference. Building on this, the fourth study applies machine learning algorithms to detailed vehicle-level data to predict vehicle mileage in Vermont based on built environment characteristics. This modeling approach demonstrates the potential to guide land use planning by identifying where changes could achieve the greatest efficiency in reducing GHG emissions.
Together, these studies provide new insights into travel behavior in rural contexts and highlight the importance of understanding how built environment and energy-related policies interact to shape travel outcomes. This work offers evidence-based guidance to help Vermont, as well as other rural areas with similar travel patterns, reduce transportation emissions more effectively.
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2026
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Ahmadnia_uvm_0243D_11978.pdf
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- Embargoed until 2026-12-19