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Investigating Swine Farm Disease Spread by a Large Agent-Based Model
Cercena, Gian
Cercena, Gian
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Abstract
Contagious swine diseases cost billions of dollars in lost profits annually, and pose dangers to other animals, including humans. These diseases can be mitigated by biosecurity measures, but the costs for these measures have collective incentives not always reflected in individual incentive structures. We design a large scale agent-based model (ABM) of the swine industry in the United States, where agent behavior is determined by their individual economic incentives, which have collective consequences in terms of disease spread. The agents in our model include swine producers (farms), feed mills, processors, and veterinarians. By simulating various scenarios under different assumptions regarding disease characteristics and network structures, the model may serve as a valuable tool for researching the impacts of disease spread on American swine supply chains. With the global demand for pork products continuing to be ever-present, ensuring the robustness of swine production networks is of vital importance. Through the exploration of disease spread dynamics and the evaluation of potential mitigation strategies, Pigs-Model contributes to the development of more effective biosecurity measures and disease management protocols, ultimately enhancing the sustainability and security of swine farming operations.
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Date
2024-01-01