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A Replication and Cross-Validation of Hakes and Sauer's "An Economic Evaluation of the Moneyball Hypothesis"
Audette, Joshua Ross
Audette, Joshua Ross
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This paper replicates and cross-validates the econometric models presented by Hakes and Sauer in “An Economic Evaluation of the Moneyball Hypothesis.” The authors suggest an inefficiency in the major league baseball player market leading up to the publishing of Michael Lewis’s Moneyball. Through the usage of basic econometric methods, Hakes and Sauer (2006) determined that while on-base and slugging percentage were improperly valued prior to the book’s release in 2003, the inefficiency was corrected soon after. This study is successful in replicating the results produced by Hakes and Sauer, as well as cross-validating their findings with an agent-based model. However, after extending their work with new and current data, the external validity of their model is brought into question. Although major league baseball teams properly valued on-base and slugging percentage following the release of Moneyball, this correction no longer holds when examining data beyond the 2004 season.
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2020-01-01
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Audette_Thesis.pdf
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