Rethinking Transportation Planning in Vermont: Current Practice and Better Alternatives
Tonny, Tanzila Tabassum
Tonny, Tanzila Tabassum
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Abstract
Transportation planning depends heavily on the quality of tools used to forecast travel demand. Travel demand models (TDMs) serve as the technical foundation for major transportation decisions at the local, regional, and state levels. However, many states continue to rely on traditional four-step models from the 1950s. These models aggregate behavior at the zonal level and struggle to represent multimodal choices and how people respond to policies like congestion pricing, transit investment, or land-use changes. Vermont is no exception; we currently use a four-step model focused exclusively on highway travel. Vermont is predominantly rural with low population density and limited public transit. More pressing, Vermont has committed to steep greenhouse gas emission reductions under the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2020: 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. Since transportation accounts for roughly 40% of Vermont�s statewide emissions, meeting these targets demands precise, policy-sensitive forecasting tools that the current model is ill-equipped to provide. Activity-based models (ABMs) represent a significant methodological advancement. Rather than modeling aggregate flows between zones, ABMs simulate complete daily activity-travel patterns of individuals, capturing mode choice, departure time, and route selection mechanisms. ABMs have demonstrated superior performance in evaluating congestion pricing, transit investment, and active transportation policies. This research implements POLARIS, an open-source ABM framework, for Chittenden County using Census data, OpenStreetMap networks, transit schedules, and vehicle registration data. The model is undergoing calibration and validation against household travel surveys. This poster presents the background on how ABMs can better support transportation planning in Vermont.
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Date
1/1/2026
Student Status
Graduate Student
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Poster
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Civil Engineering
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College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences
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Engineering