Date of Award

2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Natural Resources

First Advisor

James Murdoch

Second Advisor

Mariano Rodriguez-Cabal

Abstract

Protected areas serve as critical habitats, designed to provide a safe refuge for a diversity of species while mitigating the effects of human-induced disturbances. The efficacy of protected areas remains uncertain in many areas, despite their importance for species under threat and those facing strong human influences. The African leopard (Panthera pardus) occurs mainly in protected areas across their range, but is threatened by poaching, prey depletion, and encroachment by human activities. We examined the effect of area protection on leopard occupancy along with the effects of other ecological and anthropogenic factors in and around South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) – one of the most highly visited parks in Africa. We also estimated leopard abundance and survival probability within the park to gauge the effectiveness of protection over time. A grid of 52 camera traps was deployed across the boundary of the park from 2018 to 2023 and monitored seasonally. SLNP is a strictly protected area while the area outside the park is subject to human encroachment, poaching, and trophy hunting. In addition, our study spanned the COVID-19 Pandemic which greatly altered human activity and potentially impacted leopards. We used a multi-season occupancy framework to estimate occupancy probability using detection/non-detection data from each site and a robust capture-mark-recapture framework to estimate abundance and sex specific survival rates from individual leopard capture histories. We hypothesized that occupancy would be higher within SLNP and that abundance and survival would decline during the COVID-19 period (2020-2021) due to poaching of prey sources. We also predicted survival would be higher for males than females based on previous studies. The top occupancy model indicated closed woody habitat had the greatest impact on occupancy. Areas within the national park had higher site extinction and colonization; and detection was influenced by the additive effect of habitat type and camera model. No significant difference was detected between survival estimates of males (0.52 ± 0.14 SE) and females (0.51 ± 0.15 SE) and abundance remained relatively stable across the study period (mean = 20.59 ± 12.34, range = 10.62 to 35.99). However, low detection rates led to a high degree of uncertainty around estimates. Our models indicated that occupancy remained generally constant over time but was found to be lower overall outside the park. Abundance estimates indicated no clear trends over time within the park. However, these estimates should be interpreted cautiously as changes in camera trap deployment and antipoaching efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic could not be accounted for within models. Overall, the park supported higher occupancy, higher site extinction, and higher site colonization providing evidence for the effectiveness of protected areas for this large carnivore species.

Language

en

Number of Pages

48 p.

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Available for download on Tuesday, July 22, 2025

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